AL MVP Race: Bobby Witt Jr. is placing collectively an MVP-caliber season on the flawed time

Bobby Witt is having an all-time nice season, particularly for a shortstop. Going again to 1969, solely two shortstops have put up greater than 10 fWAR, 1991 Cal Ripken Jr. and 2002 Alex Rodriguez. For bWAR there are three together with Ripken, Rodriguez, and Rico Petrocelli who I’ll come again to once more later as he’s the one baseball participant in historical past with a ten+ WAR season that I had by no means heard of earlier than. Witt is on tempo to hitch their ranks. He at the moment has 9.6 WAR per Fangraphs and eight.9 on Baseball Reference. He has performed each recreation this season and is on a per 162 recreation tempo of 11.1 and 10.4 respectively.

It’s not simply WAR both. Amongst certified shortstops since 1969, he ranks eighth in batting common, sixth in slugging, and first in wRC+. It’s laborious to inform the place he’ll find yourself with the counting stats, however he’s probably going to be 30/30 and already has 117 runs and 97 RBI. It’s only a straight up monster season, and but he’s not going to win the MVP. In nearly some other yr, or heck within the Nationwide League this yr, he would probably win it simply. Sadly for Witt, Aaron Decide is having presumably the best (non-steroid aided) fashionable season on the plate that now we have ever seen.

Lots of individuals are giving plenty of stats about how nice Decide is and also you can learn them at your leisure. He’s on tempo to hit proper round 60 dwelling runs, however with what he has been doing these days, may break his personal American League report. His wRC+ is 223 which implies he’s 123% higher than the common hitter within the league. Witt will most likely win the batting title, however Decide is second. His OBP is .464, and no one with out the final identify Bonds has performed something like this stage of manufacturing within the 2000s. Return additional and solely Ted Williams and Babe Ruth be part of the celebration.

So, Witt may be very probably going to complete second in MVP voting this yr, and it simply made me marvel who the very best gamers to lose out on the MVP have been. These break down into just a few teams, however first I’ll present you the highest 10 in accordance with Fangraphs and Baseball Reference WAR. Then we’ll delve a bit deeper into how they ended up lacking out on the {hardware}. I’ll keep away from pitchers for simplicity’s sake. They don’t win usually and have their very own award which muddies the water.

You may see that that the 2 formulations don’t notably agree what this prime 10 ought to appear like, however it’s extra that I’m utilizing an arbitrary minimize off at prime ten. For example, Mike Trout 2018 is simply exterior the Fangraphs listing. Regardless, this offers a superb listing of participant years that will usually be MVPs, however on account of some dangerous voting, luck, or timing, they didn’t get the award. That occurred in just a few alternative ways, so I’m going to group them into these archetypes. We’ll save probably the most ludicrous for final. Additionally, Witt is on tempo to eclipse all of them.

Three of those gamers misplaced in the identical means it seems to be like Witt goes to. That they had an unimaginable yr, however another person was even higher. Two of them bumped into peak Barry Bonds when he gained 4 consecutive MVPs from 2001 to 2004. Sammy Sosa’s nice 2001 had no probability in opposition to 73 dwelling runs. Ditto for Adrian Beltre in 2004 when Bonds had a 212 wRC+. All the conventional Barry Bonds caveats apply, however dishonest or not, he was the very best participant by the numbers and far of the league nonetheless had their blinders on. Mike Trout bumped into one other nice participant in 2018. Mookie Betts had an outstanding season, higher than Trout’s most likely and Betts had by no means gotten an MVP earlier than. The voters’ tendency to become bored with giving it to the identical individuals time and again made it almost inevitable. The following group most likely shouldn’t have misplaced, however at the very least you’ll be able to see the argument

Comprehensible however most likely not proper:

Jason Giambi had an MVP caliber yr in 2000, and whenever you examine him to Alex Rodriguez it’s not loopy that he gained. Giambi hit 43 homers and Rodriguez completed with 41. Giambi had just a few extra RBI and A-Rod scored extra runs. Total, Giambi was only a higher hitter that season by most metrics together with all three slashes the place he hit .333/.476/.647. WAR likes Rodriguez higher primarily based on protection, each high quality and the place he performed. That was nonetheless the Seattle primarily based shortstop model of Rodriguez, and he was actually good. Giambi was a BAD first baseman. The defensive distinction between these two is very large. He most likely didn’t deserve the award, however at the very least I perceive what occurred. The one defensible selection over Rodriguez would have been Pedro Martinez who was unbelievable that yr.

In 1973, Pete Rose had a really Pete Rose season, however only a bit higher than all of the others. He collected 230 hits and managed a .338 common whereas getting on base 40% of the time. By all fashionable defensive metrics, it was additionally his greatest season within the discipline. He ended up at 7.3 fWAR and eight.3 bWAR. In 2024 the slugging discrepancy between him and Darrell Evans would have been understood a lot better. Evans hit 41 dwelling runs and slugged .556 ending second in that statistic. Rose hit 5 homers and his .437 slugging proportion was tremendous, however means behind Evans. Evans simply performed within the flawed period to win primarily based on the combo of statistics he produced, however he additionally misplaced to somebody who was solely barely much less incredible. Nonetheless, Evans completed 18th within the voting.

Now probably the most memorable MVP dialogue of my lifetime as a result of I used to be very a lot within the on-line baseball group throughout it. Miguel Cabrera gained the MVP in each 2012 and 2013. In these two seasons Mike Trout took second place in each votes. It’s fairly simple to clarify what occurred in 2013. Cabrera gained the triple crown, which had not been performed since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Trout had an outstanding season, however the historical past of the triple crown makes me assume the hole in WAR of 1 and a half or so by each estimations was not sufficient. The 2012 vote was the one which I might actually take challenge with.

They had been almost the identical from a hitting perspective. Cabrera has an edge in slugging, however they had been nearly equivalent after park changes and such. I feel Trout being a rookie damage him lots as a result of voters may assume he was already going to get an enormous award, so they might cut up and ensure each gamers get an honor. I simply assume the hole in protection, each place performed and the way a lot better Trout was on the more durable job, was so large that it’s absurd to say Cabrera was extra deserving.

The curious case of Rico Petrocelli was not one I used to be anticipating to see going into this. Petrocelli manned brief all through the again half of the 60s for the Purple Sox after which switched and coated third for the primary half of the 70s. He was a superb participant, not Corridor of Fame good, however a strong on a regular basis man for 10 years. He was often price 2 to 4 WAR, however in 1969 he doubled his WAR output relative to some other season by placing up 10. Harmon Killebrew beat him out for the award with a strong, although unspectacular season. He led the league in dwelling runs and RBI whereas amassing 145 walks. Killebrew was good, however he was fairly tough over at third base and solely okay when he performed first. Regardless of Killebrew having 17 extra homers than Petrocelli, their slugging percentages had been .584 and .589 respectively. Petrocelli had a greater common and slugging proportion, and he was an unimaginable shortstop. He was fourth in fielding proportion and made the fewest errors of any common shortstop in baseball, simply fewer makes an attempt for no matter purpose, which pushed the fielding proportion down a bit. It was comparable in fashionable phrases to what Bobby Witt is doing now defensively. Killebrew had the massive identify and out hit him barely, so Petrocelli needed to accept a seventh place end within the MVP voting. He sadly by no means even gained a Gold Glove, which he would have performed many instances by fashionable metrics.

The egregiously dangerous MVP selections:

We’re performed with the comprehensible outcomes, now on to a few of the indefensible nonsense that MVP voting has hire prior to now. Beginning with a traditional in 1985 the place Don Mattingly took dwelling the award over Rickey Henderson. Rickey would let you know that Rickey was the very best baseball participant, and in 1985 he was. He hit .314/.419/.516 whereas scoring 146 runs and stealing 80 bases. His slugging proportion ought to at all times be adjusted since half of his walks and singles flip into doubles. Don Mattingly hit .324/.371/.567 whereas enjoying awful first base protection. Nobody ever charged him with an error although, and so it appeared like he was good and he gained a number of gold gloves. He additionally performed for a superb Yankees crew whereas Henderson was on a really mediocre Oakland crew. It was not a good selection, however a few of the upcoming ones are a lot worse.

The 2002 model of Miguel Tejada led the league in nothing. Effectively, apart from video games performed, I suppose. It was a tremendous season, however not an MVP caliber one. Alex Rodriguez in the meantime was spectacular. He hit 57 dwelling runs and had 142 RBIs to Tejada’s 108. Tejada outhit A-Rod by .008 in common however Rodriguez crushed him in on-base and slugging. Sadly, the Rangers had been final of their division whereas Oakland gained it, and the voters thought that was sufficient to make up for the 4+ WAR hole in manufacturing. Clearly Tejada didn’t have the higher season, even a few of the voters would concede that, however his crew made the playoffs so he was “extra invaluable”.

The following one is private for me. Ken Griffey Jr. has lots to do with why I’m writing about baseball proper now. He was my favourite participant as a child, and I bear in mind getting up each morning and turning on SportsCenter to see if he hit a house run the evening earlier than. Juan Gonzalez nearly matched Griffey as a hitter in 1996. Griffey completed 49 dwelling runs and 140 RBIs whereas Gonzalez had 47 and 144. Their OPSes had been 1.020 and 1.011, so it seems to be like they had been fairly near even. Right here’s the rub although, Arlington was a very pleasant park to hit in whereas the Kingdome was a really common park, so Griffey was doing it in laborious mode. Oh yeah, and he was the most effective middle fielders of all time that season versus a foul nook outfielder. Griffey ought to have gained this simply, or at the very least it may have gone to his teammate, Rodriguez, who would have additionally been deserving that yr.

Mike Schmidt led all of baseball in dwelling runs and slugging in 1974. He was second in runs and third in RBIs. He was an distinctive third baseman. And he nonetheless misplaced to Steve Garvey within the MVP vote. He additionally completed behind Lou Brock, Mike Marshall, Johnny Bench, and Jim Wynn. Garvey hit .312 and drove in 111, so he wasn’t dangerous or something. He simply didn’t do something that stands out. He gained a Gold Glove at first base? That’s all I received. It simply doesn’t make any sense besides that Schmidt struck out an excessive amount of for that period.

Lastly, the final and most ridiculous of the bunch. Are you able to think about placing up an all-time nice season as a shortstop after which watching a aid pitcher win the MVP over you? In 1984 Cal Ripken Jr. completed the yr fifth within the AL in wRC+, hitting .304/.374/.510 whereas scoring 103 runs and driving in 86. He had the very best offensive WAR by Baseball Reference due to the positional adjustment. He was additionally the best defensive WAR. He gained the 1983 MVP so possibly individuals didn’t need to give it to him once more? Ripken not solely misplaced the vote, he completed twenty seventh? I’m not sufficiently old to recollect this time interval, however it’s baffling to take a look at with 2024 eyes. The winner that yr was Willie Hernandez who threw 140.1 innings in aid for Detroit. He had the very best ERA for any AL reliever at 1.92, however second was 2.03, so not precisely otherworldly. Two different AL relievers had extra saves. Hernandez additionally gained the Cy Younger Award although Mike Boddicker had a 20-win season. In 1983 Jesse Orosco had a a lot better aid season and completed third. I really feel like there was one thing else that precipitated this. There isn’t a means that many citizens actually thought Hernandez had an MVP season. Cal Ripken Jr. can add to his trophy assortment the worst remedy in an MVP vote of all time.