The final couple of years have been nice for the reside music business. After being locked up with the pandemic for a few years, followers splurged on live shows and festivals in an orgy of “funflation,” that sense that life’s too quick and also you would possibly as effectively get pleasure from it whilst you can, it doesn’t matter what it prices.
There have been a few glorious years as revenues exploded, shortly returning to pre-pandemic ranges. It’s now a $40 billion a yr enterprise with the highest 100 excursions grossing US$9.2 billion in 2023, which is sort of twice as a lot the US$5.5 billion grossed in 2019.
Nevertheless, issues are getting somewhat cloudy. We would have reached some sort of breaking level.
I first wrote about this drawback again in April when it appeared there was a scarcity of enthusiasm for this yr’s crop of music festivals. For the primary time in years, Coachella struggled to promote out. A worrying variety of Australian music festivals had been cancelled. Phrase within the U.Ok. was that festival-happy Brits had been sitting on their wallets, endangering many festivals. Since then, issues have solely develop into worse.
Eventually rely, a minimum of 40 British festivals have been known as off with many others on either side of the Atlantic both teetering or saying that they’re executed after 2024. Jennifer Lopez cancelled her whole tour. The Black Keys’ enviornment tour was postponed so it might be scaled right down to extra intimate (learn: smaller) venues. Busta Rhymes known as off his Blockbusta tour. After scoping out a European tour, 311 has determined to name off every part, citing “rising prices of touring abroad.” Pink and Justin Timberlake have cancelled a few exhibits every. The Jonas Brothers had been going to Europe, however not anymore. Guitarist Robin Trower introduced he’s staying residence. I’ve heard from different mid-range acts — artists you’ll suppose might reliably draw good crowds — say that the economics of touring simply don’t make any sense.
Whereas it’s nonetheless early in the summertime touring season, promoters proceed to fret if punters will present up for gigs they’ve bought scheduled down the road. What’s occurring?
The quick model is that individuals have run out of cash. They’re having to make exhausting selections about which exhibits they’ll attend and which of them they’ll should miss.
Acts like Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and Madonna have drained financial institution accounts as folks not solely attended native exhibits however travelled to out-of-market gigs. U2’s 40-night stand at The Sphere in Las Vegas — which was well worth the value of a ticket, by the best way — grossed US$240 million.
With tickets for celebrity acts so costly, it’s simple to blow the annual allocation for live shows with only one or two exhibits, which means there’s nothing left over to spend on midrange or rising acts. With so many individuals combating the price of dwelling, live performance ticket sticker shock comes into play. A present {that a} fan would possibly attend on a whim is the primary to go. Informal music followers are staying residence to look at Netflix. Even hardcore followers are balking at spending $100 for nosebleed seats.
Ancillary bills have additionally gone up. It’s not unusual to see parking heaps close to a venue cost $40 and above for an area. Inside, food and drinks prices extra. And in case you journey away from residence to see a present, there’s the matter of transportation and lodging, each of that are hardly low cost. Toronto resort rooms for Taylor Swift’s go to in November are insane. Anybody wanting someplace to put their head for these couple of weeks in November might be shocked to be taught that $2,000 an evening is the going price at many institutions.
The costs for top-tier exhibits aren’t coming down, both. I’ve heard business insiders lament that tickets for the most important stars are nonetheless too low cost and under no circumstances mirror their true market worth. On the similar time, although, they’ll admit that tickets for everybody under that stage are too costly. In the meantime, the secondary market of ticket resellers continues to make it tough for normal folks to afford live shows. (Enjoyable truth: Common resale ticket costs appear to be dropping, a sign of … one thing.)
In the meantime, there are simply so many acts on tour — too many, in truth. The market is saturated. However on condition that some artists derive as much as 70 per cent of their income on the highway, they should tour to make ends meet. Staging a highway journey has additionally develop into costlier. Commonplace inflationary pressures are dangerous sufficient, however add in shortages of every part from gear to vans to buses to roadies, up-front prices have skyrocketed. The U.S. has additionally boosted the worth of visas for overseas acts, which is a matter unto itself. But when the general public has run out of cash — effectively, you’ll be able to see how the crises begin to pile up.
There additionally must be a lot consternation behind the scenes, too. One concern is the dwindling variety of smaller venues, a vital a part of the reside music system. When you’re an artist of a sure dimension, it doesn’t make monetary sense to play something larger. What number of artists have quietly determined to forgo a tour as an alternative of risking taking part in earlier than a sea of empty seats and dropping cash?
Whereas many are bullish on the way forward for reside music — Goldman Sachs included — there are others who say that the present trajectory is unsustainable. And what occurs when the most important acts, many who’re of their 60s and 70s, disappear from the scene?
Possibly when Taylor Swift lastly takes a break, everybody will be capable of take a breath, replenish their live performance ticket funds, and issues will flip round. Or possibly not. What if the economics of reside music dictate that the business wants extra venues like The Sphere? It’s actually simpler for acts to play residencies and have followers journey to them. How a lot might that state of affairs drain away from the center and decrease finish of the market?
The reside music business has all the time been dangerous. We would quickly discover ourselves in a scenario the place issues are even riskier.
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