UFC 302 paths to victory: How can Dustin Poirier upset Islam Makhachev and end his story?

UFC 302 takes place this Saturday in Newark, NJ, headlined by a light-weight title combat between champion Islam Makhachev and dwelling legend Dustin Poirier. Makhachev is one win away from tying the light-weight document for title defenses, whereas Poirier has one remaining likelihood to assert the one factor that’s eluded him throughout his MMA profession: an undisputed UFC title. Who will win and the way will every fighter go about their enterprise on Saturday? Let’s dive in.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Islam Makhachev at UFC 302

At this level, there’s not a lot to say about Makhachev that hasn’t already been mentioned. Nonetheless solely 32 years previous, Makhachev is the highest pound-for-pound fighter within the sport and already a top-five all-time light-weight. When it’s all mentioned and accomplished, there’s a very good likelihood he goes down because the divisional GOAT, and a win over Poirier strikes him nearer to that endgame. However how will he do it? It looks like we already know.

Talking about Poirier forward of the combat, Makhachev was sincere about the truth that his pal and teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov beat Poirier already, and that they’ve the same gameplan for this combat. And “beat” is placing it frivolously. Although Poirier had some moments towards Nurmagomedov, the reality is that Khabib demolished him together with his vastly superior grappling abilities. Makhachev seems poised to do the identical factor.

Poirier’s weak spot has at all times been his grappling. Whereas he’s a BJJ black belt and a very good grappler by most requirements, he’s not a robust positional grappler and he’s far too prepared to sacrifice defensive standing un pursuit of low-percentage submission (the person merely wouldn’t cease leaping guillotines towards Benoit Saint Denis regardless of his coaches telling him to not). That’s a giant downside towards a management grappler nearly as good as Makhachev. Islam repeatedly obtained Alexander Volkanovski into dangerous positions the place the featherweight champion might do nothing, and he can do the identical to Poirier. Furthermore, Poirier additionally tends to surrender his again throughout transitions, and that’s one thing Makhachev could make him pay for.

The trick for Makhachev will likely be how he goes about getting the takedowns, and luckily, there’s a playbook for that as nicely. Makhachev is an distinctive wrestler and whereas he’s not nearly as good of a shot-wrestler as Khabib was, he’s even higher within the clinch, each with knees and journeys. Poirier had some success combating the palms and denying Khabib’s preliminary takedown makes an attempt once they fought, however had no reply for the journeys and chain wrestling that adopted. Islam can do precisely the identical to get this combat to the bottom the place he’s massively favored, if Poirier doesn’t simply leap a guillotine on him and quit the place on his personal.

Relating to the standup, Makhachev is pretty low quantity together with his putting, however he’s an distinctive defensive fighter, with good kicks and nice timing on his rear hand. So long as he stays conscious of Poirier’s lead proper hook (arguably his greatest punch and coincidentally the identical punch that Adriano Martins knocked Makhachev out with in his lone loss) then he must be high quality.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Paths to victory for Dustin Poirier at UFC 302

Poirier’s profession turnaround has been one of the fulfilling journeys to look at in MMA. Going from a hard-punching, reckless featherweight to one of the technically and defensively spectacular lightweights on this planet is not any small feat. It’s how Poirier gained an interim title and cemented himself as a future Corridor of Famer. And he’ll want each little bit of that on Saturday, plus heaps of excellent fortune.

Whereas Makhachev is commonly in comparison with Nurmagomedov alongside the strains of “Khabib however with higher putting” that comparability misses the mark. Makhachev is a “higher” striker in a vacuum however actually his recreation is a mirror of Khabib’s: he’s defensively tight however with low quantity, he’s a menace within the clinch, and most significantly, he permits fights come to him (he’s additionally not practically as imply as Khabib nor fairly as athletic however that’s not likely the purpose). Nurmagomedov’s recreation was constructed totally in service to his grappling. Makhachev’s will not be. Makhachev’s recreation is outlined by being an excellent grappler, however he’s content material to maneuver to that part inside the rhythm of the combat. It’s easy one possibility for Makhachev, not the one possibility. And that is likely to be Poirier’s window for fulfillment.

Poirier’s solely reasonable path to victory is knocking Makhachev out. We all know that he may be knocked out and we all know that Poirier actually is extra artful and hits tougher than Adriano Martins. We additionally know that Makhachev and his camp are enamored together with his putting potential. If Makhachev needs to start out brawling, that’s good for Poirier. So draw him right into a brawl.

The one time Makhachev has ever seemed susceptible (aside from the Martins knockout) was his first combat with Alexander Volkanovski, the place Volk merely competed as arduous as he might in all phases. As a result of Makhachev isn’t Khabib, when he will get a fighter down, it’s not instantly curtains by way of hellish elbows and ground-and-pound. Makhachev is happier to regulate, which means you can also make him work there. The extra you make him work, the extra drained he will get, which means takedowns don’t come as simple, which means he’ll begin putting extra as a result of he’s not somebody to pressure the problem. If Poirier can take Makhachev out of his consolation zone early, because the combat drags on it’s going to transfer into territory that Poirier can excel in.

In service of that finish, Poirier has to remain within the middle of the cage and continuously put palms on Makhachev. Jabs and uppercuts for days, elbows when Makhachev steps inside, and fixed circling. Put quantity on Makhachev and see what finds the chin. Perhaps nothing, and perhaps you lose, but it surely’s higher to go down swinging than leaping a guillotine with no likelihood of success.

X-Components

That is nearly actually Poirier’s remaining likelihood at undisputed UFC gold. He’s 35 years previous and, frankly, doesn’t actually deserve this title shot. Within the well-known phrases of Jimmy McGinty, “there is no such thing as a tomorrow for you, and that makes you all very harmful folks!” Poirier goes to let all of it hang around on Saturday. Will or not it’s sufficient? We’ll see.

Prediction

I’m an unapologetic Islam Makhachev fan however each fiber of my being needs to choose Dustin Poirier to tug off the upset. He’s one of many only a few folks which might be universally beloved in MMA and him successful a title at this stage of his profession, when he was actually written off, would immediately rank as one of many best moments in MMA historical past.

However this ain’t a Disney film. There are not any comfortable endings in sight. Simply the tough realities of the MMA world and its gods.

Makhachev is just too defensively sound on the ft, too good on the bottom, and too sensible to present Poirier any likelihood on this combat. He’s the inheritor obvious to the perfect fighter I’ve ever seen, and whereas I don’t suppose Makhachev is kind of what Khabib was, he’s 95 p.c of the way in which there, which nonetheless makes him the perfect fighter on this planet at the moment. Poirier is nice, however Islam is the perfect.

Islam Makhachev def. Dustin Poirier by way of submission (rear-naked choke) — Spherical 3, 1:36